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The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 78%, with trading volume for related forecast events reaching $145M.

The bond selloff has driven a key Treasury yield to the verge of 5%, worsening angst from Wall Street to Washington about the higher borrowing costs hitting the US economy.

“We are now looking for at least a couple of rate hikes by the end of the year,” says Jennifer Lee of @BMO. Traders have put the likelihood of a federal rate hike at about 90% ahead of Wednesday’s decision as the Fed looks to tamp down inflation.

A rate hike in Japan is considered a sure thing, write @Moss_Eco & @GearoidReidy. But it may not be the most important thing for the yen (via @opinion)